The Effects of Media on U.S. Presidential Elections
MEDIA | POLITICS
With technology advancing exponentially, from the inception of social media algorithms to the emergence of AI and deep fakes, an endless cycle of disinformation and manipulation is created.
By Aya Safa
(Image credit: Nick Anderson / Copyright 2023 Tribune Content Agency)
March 28, 2024Should the media select the upcoming US president? Social media plays an instrumental role in connecting communities, spreading information, and giving a voice to those who desire to express their opinion. It allows users to constantly be updated with the latest political news which has an impact on their voting decision. According to Pew Research Center in 2023, ‘Nearly half of social media users have been politically active on social media in the past year.’ Throughout the years, social media had a central role in affecting voting behavior, especially in the United States. In 2023 Brookings found that of all the presidential candidates, Trump has the most followers on social media (Brookings). Social media allows political candidates to directly communicate with voters which enables them to share their own perspective, whereas different news networks can share news from varying angles. Labeled as ‘one of the most important elections to occur’, the 2024 U.S presidential election with a rematch between Trump and Biden is extremely intense and has alarmed Americans and non Americans alike. Despite social media shaping the candidates' political campaigns, its algorithm introduces an echo chamber with biases and polarization in many communities. This profoundly impacts the election polls of the 2024 U.S election, specifically in swing states.
In our current generation, we spend countless hours on social media feeds continuously scrolling, interacting, and sharing posts with our friends and family. Well, I’m certain that this thought has crossed your mind: “How does this feed know me so well?” The answer to that is there is a specialized algorithm that controls how social media feeds operate. As seen in the documentary ‘The Social Dilemma’ by Jeff Orlowski many data scientists, software developers, and entrepreneurs explain the concept of this algorithm. Justin Rosenstein describes how search engines generate different results depending on your location and interests Google knows about you. For instance if you type in ‘climate change is’ different users get contrasting autocomplete results. For example, some may get climate change ‘is a hoax’ and others climate change is ‘disrupting the planet’ (The Social Dilemma). Algorithms work based on computational calculations that analyze your interactions with your liked posts and feed, thus determining how content and posts are ranked, updated, and filtered. Therefore, every single user, even those who live close to each other have completely different feeds and updates. For example, a specific group of people who advocate for climate change always tend to question why those who oppose it do not see the other side (The Social Dilemma). Well, in reality it’s because they don’t. The algorithm creates a specific feed on social media and suggests posts that solely align with the users opinions and beliefs. Hence, both opposing groups don’t consume the same set of facts. This, on a larger scale, creates an echo chamber whereby participants acquire information that merely aligns with their pre-existing opinions, generating vast divisions in societies.
Source: The Social Dilemma Netflix Study Political Polarization in the U.S.
A crucial study from the Pew Research Center based on a survey of 10,000 adults finds that “Republicans and Democrats are more divided along ideological lines – and partisan antipathy is deeper and more extensive – than at any point in the last two decades.” (Pew Research, 1) These vast divisions are prominent amongst individuals who are most actively involved in politics (Brookings, 2023). This political polarization is a result of several factors and social media is without a doubt one. By analyzing the below data we can conclude that as the years increase the gap between democrats and republicans is widening.
FIGURE 2: Political Polarization in the US; Pew Research Center “The blue area in this chart represents the ideological distribution of Democrats; the red area of Republicans. The overlap of these two distributions is shaded purple. Republics include Republican-leaning independents; Democrats include Democratic-leaning independents.” (Pew Research, 1)By examining the data from 1994 to 2004 and 2014, it becomes clear that the fraction of leaning independent voters has declined over the years. It is notable that citizens who are firmly aligned with either the Democratic or Republican party are less likely to alter their party preferences, as their allegiance has already been established. Although, it is the swing states, where either party has a reasonable chance to win, that greatly influence election outcomes. These are the states where undecided voters reside, hence are the focus for candidates who invest a large amount of money to gain their support.
Misinformation & Fake News
The factor that plays a crucial role in determining the results of the elections is most definitely fake news. Usually, these stories act as political propaganda as a way to manipulate people’s opinions and views. The 2016 U.S Presidential election is a notable example of the impact fake news has on undecided voters. As reported by University of Central Florida, “There was a research study that said undecided voters were more likely to vote for President Trump in the last election if they believed the fake news about Hillary Clinton that they saw on social media.” (University of Central Florida, 9).
The study “Fake News May Have Contributed to Trump’s 2016 Victory” conducted in Ohio State University highlights the impact of misinformation on the outcome of the 2016 US presidential election. Researchers analyzed the behaviors of 585 individuals who had voted for Barack Obama back in 2012. Most of all, it is important to recognize that if the majority of Barack supporters voted for Hilary, she would have won against Trump in the electoral college (Richard Gunther et al. 1)
Although, according to the study 77 percent of those Obama voters supported Clinton, (Richard Gunther et al. 1). Out of the remaining 23 percent, 10 percent voted for Trump, 8 percent did not vote, and 4 percent switched to minor parties. However, to understand the influence of such decisions the group organized a survey of 281 questions to their respondents. Besides the usual election survey questions, it also included three statements related to fake news which were:
“Hillary Clinton is in very poor health due to a serious illness.” For this claim, 12 percent of Obama voters believed it was “definitely” or “probably” true (Richard Gunther et al. 1).
"Pope Francis endorsed Donald Trump for president prior to the election." Regarding this statement, 8 percent of Obama voters shared this belief (Richard Gunther et al. 1).
"During her time as U.S. Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton approved weapon sales to Islamic jihadists, including ISIS." Alarmingly, 20% of former Obama voters believed it was true (Richard Gunther et al. 1).
Source: Team Twipe • February 16, 2017The above findings depict how fake news and misinformation shape voters perceptions and impact their decisions. Although the study does acknowledge the existence of other factors, it is evident that fake news has a substantial effect in altering voting decisions, specifically undecided voters. This underlines the importance of media literacy and recognizing the difference between biased news and fake news.
AI, Deep Fakes, & disinformation
Technology is advancing exponentially with AI and deep fakes creating disinformation and misinformation within communities. Despite its capabilities, we must be aware of the damage it can create if misused or abused. The outcome of this election will have a huge impact on the trajectory of the nation’s future. AI has never been more sophisticated with fake audios of biden created to AI generated images of trump. Generative AI is extremely threatening to the elections and can easily be accessed by many as false and manipulative content can effortlessly be created.
The 2024 U.S presidential election is extremely intense with misinformation circulating within the media due to AI. Fake audios of anyone or certain images can be created within minutes. These examples are referred to as deep fakes in which a person’s face or body has been digitally altered into a photo or video by using an algorithm (Webwise). In this election deep fakes have been used to maliciously spread disinformation. Do you want an audio of Joe Bidends voice conving citizens to vote for him? Easy. Recently, a fake audio call with Joe Biden’s voice was circulating around the New Hampshire state to suppress voters and convince them to vote for Biden (Holland). However, the White House has confirmed that it was not Joe Biden but instead an attempt of disinformation. AI generated images of Trump of him being arrested were created using AI tools and fake images of Biden in a military uniform (The Guardian).
Image from: OECD.AI
According to the New York Post, a study was conducted that ‘when an audio clip with an AI voice was played, a fifth of respondents (20%) were unsure if it was human or AI, while 41% believed the AI voice was authentically human (SWNS).
Although, it turns out that robocalls aren't experts’ biggest concern as Miles Taylor, a former chief of staff for the Department of Homeland Security, expresses his concern on how he’s less worried about voters or supporters creating deepfakes to spread disinformation, and more worried about advertising companies using it to manipulate voters (Snyder). People can use AI tools to create audios of their loved ones, friends, or families trying to convince them to vote for a specific candidate. Such examples depict the threatening aspect of AI, causing the US government to create new policies such as the ban of AI generated voices in robocalls.
As observed through the history of elections, technology continues to advance at a faster rate, going from social media algorithms and echo chambers to deep fakes and AI. We must understand how dangerous and convincing AI can be. In a world where technology is the center of everything, are citizens truly the ones deciding the outcome of the election, or are they merely puppets being manipulated by the deep fakes and AI?
Works Cited
“2. Americans’ Views of and Experiences with Activism on Social Media.” Pew Research Center: Internet, Science & Tech, Pew Research Center, 29 June 2023, www.pewresearch.org/internet/2023/06/29/americans-views-of-and-experiences-with-activism-on-social-media/.
Sanchez, Gabriel R., et al. “Tracking the Invisible Primary on Social Media.” Brookings, 14 Aug. 2023, www.brookings.edu/articles/tracking-the-invisible-primary-on-social-media/.
“Ai Could ‘Supercharge’ Misinformation in 2024 Election. How Will Pennsylvania Officials Combat It?” CBS News, CBS Interactive, www.cbsnews.com/philadelphia/news/artificial-intelligence-2024-election-misinformation-warning-pennsylvania/. Accessed 24 Mar. 2024.
“Ai and Misinformation: What’s Ahead for Social Media as the US Election Looms?” The Guardian, Guardian News and Media, 10 Feb. 2024, www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/10/social-media-ai-misinformation-election-2024.
“Political Polarization in the American Public.” Pew Research Center - U.S. Politics & Policy, Pew Research Center, 12 June 2014, www.pewresearch.org/politics/2014/06/12/political-polarization-in-the-american-public/.
McGarrigle, Jane. “Explained: What Is Fake News?: Social Media and Filter Bubbles.” Webwise.Ie, 22 July 2022, www.webwise.ie/teachers/what-is-fake-news/.
Gunther , Richard, et al. “A Study Titled Fake News May Have Contributed to Trump’s 2016 Victory.” Ohio State University, 8 Mar. 2018.
The Social Dilemma. Directed by Jeff Orlowski, Exposure Labs, 2020. Netflix, netflix.com/title/81254224.
